Dude, where's my supersonic jet?

Summary

Dear Rational Optimist,The Wright brothers first sputtered into the air in 1903.Concorde broke the sound barrier in 1969.Only 66 years separate these two photos:But in the 56 years since Concorde debuted, aviation innovation has been stuck in a rut. Planes have gotten safer but slower. The fastest commercial passenger jet currently operating, the Boeing 747-8, flies half as fast as the Concorde.I felt the pain personally on my recent trip from Abu Dhabi to LA. 24 hours door-to-door. We have the technology to reduce that to under 10. Why don’t we?Three reasons: noise, regulation and cost. As I’ll show you, all three are at various stages of being solved by some of the smartest and most dedicated founders I’ve ever met.For a full primer on supersonic flight, read my colleague David Galland’s excellent Deep Dive. In this essay I’ll focus on the exciting progress made in supersonic in the last six months, led by two companies I just visited (Boom Supersonic and Astro Mechanica) and one startup whose founder I recently interviewed (Hermeus).All three are moving fast. All three will change how we fly. And they have big plans to usher in “Supersonic 2.0,” where anyone can catch a quick, affordable supersonic flight almost anywhere on earth.Who will win?The evolutionEarlier this year Boom Supersonic’s XB-1 became the first privately developed jet to break the sound barrier.Importantly, nobody on the ground heard a thing, thanks to Boom’s application of a concept called “Mach cutoff.” By flying at the right altitude and using AI software to measure atmospheric conditions, Boom ensured the loud sonic boom curved upward and dissipated into the sky, rather than disturbing people below.Noise problem solved.A few months later in June, likely as a result of Boom’s quiet supersonic demonstration, we got the regulatory change we needed.Since 1973 all supersonic flight, noisy or not, has been banned over land in the US. On June 6, Executive Order 14304 restored our right to fly super...