The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

Summary

According to official metrics, inflation in the Bay Area is cooling. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that San Francisco's Consumer Price Index increased just 2.5% year-over-year, well below the post-pandemic peaks. The Federal Reserve has declared victory. But is the inflation crisis really over?There's a reason the national numbers look good. It’s true that many goods are cheaper than they were last year. For example, TVs cost less. And the price of clothing went down. This is great news if you are in the market for a new TV or wardrobe. But we don’t buy new TVs or new clothes every day. We do, however, pay bills every month. We need insurance. We get our electricity from PG&E. We go out to eat. And in these areas, inflation is surging. We looked at the receipts (literally), and found that for the specific things San Franciscans buy, the inflation rate isn't 2.5%. For some components, it’s double digits. Your PG&E bill has more than doubled over the last decade, and the cost of heating your apartment increased 14% last year alone. A burrito that cost $5.50 in 2014 is now $13.95. And your Uber rides cost nearly three times what they did in the days of VC subsidies. And if you're looking for official government data on SF electricity prices? You won't find it anymore. The BLS stopped publishing it.The gap between measured inflation and lived inflation reveals a number of flaws in how we measure the cost of living, especially in a city like San Francisco. And as the Bay Area enters 2026 facing the pressures of AI-fueled housing demand, historic IPOs, and expired healthcare subsidies, that gap is about to get much wider.Let’s take the cost of dining out. The CPI’s Food Away From Home component shows modest increases, but tracking actual menu prices at San Francisco institutions paints a different picture.While Yelp is past its prime for reviews, it turns out it is an excellent archive of San Francisco's food pricing history. The menu price photos preserve the ev...